SINGAPORE, March 16 (IFR) – Chinese property bonds
remained under pressure today following the sudden spike in
primary supply from the sector. A new bond priced by KWG to
yield 13.5% yesterday weighed on the space with most bonds
dropping as much as USD1.
The worst performer was RenHe, which has already been
suffering since its rating was downgraded one notch to B+ by SP
earlier this week. The companys 2016s, which had started the
week bid at 84.00 were being bid today 81.50. One trader said
that anyone who could find a buyer was selling what they had.
But RenHe was not alone. KWGs deal had the effect of making
it clear to investors that Chinese property companies will
return to the market and are willing to pay up for money. The
prospect of supply pushed the prices on all bonds in the sector
about USD1 lower.
Even the weeks outperformers, Agiles new 2017s, lost some
ground today and fell below reoffer of 99.90 closing at
98.75-99.25. They had traded above par earlier in the week, The
newly created KWG 2017s were showing no strength and remained
below reoffer level at 98.75.
However, trading was scant, as befits a Friday session, with
just a handful of spaced-out trades being printed. It was
enough, though, for the Asia ex-Japan iTraxx IG 16 index to
touch a level it had not seen since the first week of August.
The key CDS yardstick was closing the session bid at 135bp.
Indeed, at that level it was set for a bounce given that it was
touching the resistance of the two standard deviation bollinger
band of the 51-day moving average. Looks like its time to
sell, said a trader in Singapore.
Yet, it does not look like the bounce is coming so soon.
Fund flows into EM fixed income were very strong at USD1.4bn
according to EPFR, almost 14% higher than the week before.
And if the IG index breaches through that second bollinger,
its next resistance is only at 115bp, where the three standard
deviation bollinger is. The index has only breached through the
three-standard deviation bollinger band three times in the past
two years.
Twice it was a widening move due to major volatility in the
market but once, last February, it was a tightening move. But
once it touched the other bollinger it bounced invariably. So it
seems that while the trader could be proven wrong this time,
there is only so much more that Asian IG credits can tighten.
To be sure, much of the tightening in the index was driven
by a sharp move in US Treasuries, instead of a sudden spike in
interest for Asian investment-grade. The yield on the 10-year US
Treasury spiked almost 20bp this week amid a sudden bout of risk
appetite.
And while Asian benchmarks did drop in price as well, they
lagged the benchmark and saw their spreads tighten as a result.
For instance, the yield on the 2037 bonds of the Philippines
widened only some 10bp throughout the week while the 30-year US
Treasury widened a whopping 27bp. Even having outperformed US
Treasuries, though, benchmarks lost ground from a price
perspective.
Indonesias 2042s lost some USD2 in the week to close today
at 106.25 mid-market. But, given the level of outperformance to
the US Treasuries, it looks like they could be set for a
correction next week, at least from a price perspective.
